The 2020 US Elections – Some Solid Ground in a Shifting Landscape

US presidential elections tend to invite superlatives, especially in the realm of punditry, but also in more detailed analyses. Campaign operations keep getting larger and more expensive, population growth and change are leading to an ever more diverse electorate turning up to vote in ever greater numbers, and each election inspires commentators to wonder if they had ever seen one that was more negative or “nastier” (the answer is quite confidently yes, in 1800). Accordingly, one can reasonably expect to read about how the 2020 race may be the most unpredictable in recent history, with a sitting President who has already won once in pollster-defying upset, a trade war with China only whose effects offer all sides plenty of narrative fodder, and, most recently, an epidemic that already has people comparing its eventual transformative power to that of the September 11 attacks, and that is yet to show signs of slowing down in the United States.